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From global middle class to global populism? No way.

From global middle class to global populism?  No way.

A OECD researcher says:

Homi Kharas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, defines today’s global middle class as households with daily expenditures of $10-100 per person (at purchasing power parity). This represents approximately two billion people, split almost evenly between developed and emerging economies. In its Perspectives on Global Development 2012 – Social Cohesion in a Shifting World, the OECD forecasts that, by 2030, the global middle class could total 4.9 billion. Of these, 3.2-3.9 billion will probably live in emerging economies, representing 65-80% of the global population.

So, the possibility of global middle class revolt and global populism emerges.  But, wait a second, Dani Rodrik says:

A few years ago, the World Values Survey questioned respondents in scores of countries about their attachments to their local communities, their nations, and to the world at large. Not surprisingly, those who viewed themselves as national citizens greatly outnumbered those who regarded themselves as world citizens. But, strikingly, national identity overshadowed even local identity in the United States, Europe, India, China, and most other regions.

OK.  The middle class revolts, it diffuses.  But, that's it.  No global populism.  Only national populist revolts united.

By the way, given the fact that relative definition of poverty is propagated by OECD, the absolute definition of middle class seems awkward.  Let me just quote A.K.Sen:

アマルティア・セン『正義のアイデア』翻訳p.369、オリジナルp.256

注4:
実際、所得で見たときの相対的貧困は、ケイパビリティで見たときの絶対的貧困を生み出す。豊かな国で相対的に貧しいことは、たとえ絶対水準では世界の標準よりも高かったとしても、ケイパビリティの面で大きな障害となる。豊かな社会では、同じ社会的機能を達成するために十分な財を購入するのに、より多くの所得を必要とする。

In fact, relative deprivation in terms of incomes can yield absolute deprivation in terms of capabilities.  Being relatively poor in a rich country can be a great capability handicap, even when one’s income is high by world standards.

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