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日本のTPP問題で、メキシコのNAFTA経験が参照される場合の質問集

日本のTPP問題で、メキシコのNAFTA経験が参照される場合の質問集(答えというよりも質問が大事。答えはあくまでも暫定的なもの):

1)日本の米をふまえて、メキシコの主食であるとうもろこし(トルティーリャ)生産はどうなったのか?

USDA (2004)によれば、

Although the growing U.S.-Mexico corn trade has changed significantly since the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, it retains many of its pre-trade-liberalization characteristics. The majority of U.S. corn exports to Mexico still consists of yellow corn, which is primarily used as an ingredient in animal feed. From 1998 to 2002, the United States also exported to Mexico substantial quantities of white corn, which is used to make tortillas, but these exports have since diminished, possibly due to Mexican Government support for domestically produced white corn. The number of agricultural producers in Mexico declined substantially during the 1990s, but the Mexican corn sector still features a large number of small-scale producers, whose efforts are also supplemented by government payments. Broader access to U.S. yellow corn is fostering the expansion of hog and poultry production in Mexico, while Mexico’s large flour companies are increasing their role in tortilla production, not only in Mexico but also in the United States.

とくに、Fig 1は興味深い。タイトルだけ。

Figure 1
Contrary to some expectations, Mexican corn production
has increased in the face of rising U.S. corn exports to Mexico

このことから、日本のTPP反対識者は単純には、日本の米の前例として、メキシコのとうもろこしを使いたくないだろう。生産は落ちていないのだ。生産者数は少なくなっているが(Table 1)、栽培面積(Fig. 3)は変わらないとのことである(この結果も使いたくないだろう)。支援プログラムが部分的にはこれを説明するとのことである(この結果は使いたいかもしれない)。実際のところ、NAFTA後、

Overall, changes in Mexico’s corn-related policies in the late 1990s and early 2000s have maintained a high level of support for producers (shifting in form from price to nonprice support) but lowered supports for consumers (fig. 7).

つまり、メキシコのトウモロコシ市場は守られたのである。但し、メキシコのとうもろこし市場を議論するときに、注意しておかなければならないことがある。メキシコのとうもろこし市場は、二つの市場(white cornは主食のtortilla用、yellow cornは飼料用)から成立している。この二つの代替性は低いのだ。このことを書かない分析は、専門家としてはdishonestなものになると私は思う。つまり、米国は飼料用のyellow cornを作ってメキシコにたくさん輸出しているが(Fig.2)、これはメキシコの主食のトルティーリャの原料たるwhite cornをメキシコ農家から奪っているのではない。Fig. 2を見れば、NAFTA後、米国のWhite Cornの対メキシコ輸出は2000年までは伸びたが、それ以降は輸出は減少しているのだ。もちろん、安い飼料は肉類の安い原料となり、メキシコ政府の手厚いwhite cornへのサポートによりトルティーリャの高価格化ともあいまって、メキシコの人々は肉類をより食べるようになった(但し、生活水準が上がれば肉をより食べるようになるのはしばしば観察される事実でもある)。

この点、この文書には大きな欠落があると思う。環境のことを語るよりも、まずは農業として語るべき本丸(専門家としての周知の事実)があるのではないかと思う。

もちろん穿って考えるとすれば、こんなことは考えられる。直接支援は、兼業農家よりも専業農家に行くだろう。より土地生産性を上げるためにも、土地の集約化が推進されるだろう。専業農家よりも兼業農家の支援団体のほうが、直接支援には及び腰になるだろう。

この分野の権威とも言えるYunez Naude and Taylor (2006)はこう書いている。

To understand why production of maize under rain-fed conditions has not decreased with NAFTA and domestic reforms (i.e., why small farms and households continue to produce maize), we used a DREM to estimate the likely impacts of policy reforms in two contrasting rural regions of Mexico. For central Mexico we found that, through local market linkages between households producing staples for the market and subsistence households, production of maize by subsistence farmers could increase, even when the price of this grain falls. By increasing household income and consumption of maize, the devaluetion of the peso and PROCAMPO and PROGRESA government income transfers also increased maize production by subsistence households and by small farmers in central Mexico.

ということでメキシコの零細とうもろこし農家はNAFTAで生産を減らさなかったというのが専門家の「常識」なのだ。もちろん、それはメキシコ零細農家が国民市場から遮断されているという発展途上国状況によるものだというのが説明になる。日本の場合はこうはならないというのが、TPP賛成者の想像であり、まさにここがTPP反対者(主として、年寄りの兼業農家を支援する人々)の論点なのだ。

2)NAFTA後、メキシコの賃金構造は教育(熟練)別、地域別にどうなったのか?

Hanson (2003)によれば、

Overall, wage gains were largest for more-educated workers living close to the United States and smallest for less-educated workers living in the country’s south.

とのこと。日本は米国と国境は接していないので、交通網が整備されている場所にややプラスの影響が出る。米国とメキシコ、米国と日本では要素賦存のパターンが異なるので参考にならない。但し、もし米国のFDIでより「英語のわかるマネージャー」が必要になるとすれば、それは日本のより「若い世代」にプラスに効くことは予想される。例えば、米国の農業団体が農産品を日本に輸出しようと商社を介せずに、直接に支店を日本に開設した場合には、おそらく英語のわかる「若い世代」が雇用されるのではなかろうか(wishful thinking?)。

3)NAFTA後、メキシコは麻薬戦争にさいなまれている。日本もそうなるのではないか?

麻薬戦争は、メキシコが米国への麻薬の通り道にあるというlocationalな特徴が大きい。日本が米国への通り道になっているという話は聞いたことがないし、そういう可能性も低い。

4)投資家保護条項はメキシコに不利であった。

これはメキシコ・米国間のように陸の国境があり、陸上交通がある場合により大きく影響すると思われる。環境被害も特に陸の国境がある場合に大きく発生する可能性がある。例えば、日本の環境規制が低い(?)という理由で、米国企業が日本に立地する可能性は現状では極めて低いだろう。ひょっとすると、日本で大きな災害が発生した某産業は除いてだが。

5)そもそも貿易の利益はどこに発生するのか。

関税が高い場合にこれを削減すると大きな利益が発生する。もちろん、いろんな条件が満たされたときであることは言うまでもない。しかし、もとも農業を続けようか毎年考えている老人が農業をやっている場合には、若者に農地を集め、専門化して土地生産性や労働生産性を上げるという機運が自ずとあるだろうから、資源配分の効率化の利益を享受することができる可能性がある。そういう意味では、兼業ではなく専業農家にこそ、貿易自由化の向かい風ばかりでなく追い風が吹く可能性がある。逆に、兼業農家には向かい風ばかり吹くだろう。

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