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himaginary: 実質為替レートの意味

 himaginary氏による実質為替レートの意味。PKの元ポストはこれ。直感では、マンデルのトリレンマに照らすと、件の中国当局(もしくは、その当局をおもんばかって動く中銀の部下たち)は、資本規制解除のスピードを速くしないという風に動くのではないだろうか。

 インフレ抑制のために金利を上げると、海外からの元需要が高まり、為替レートに切り上げの圧力がかかる。これが資本規制が無い状態での通常のメカニズムだろう。しかし、資本規制をかけていると、これは起こらない。とはいえ、資本規制は一定の取引費用によって表わされるので、通常は、規模の大きい金融企業がinstitutional arbitrageをしかけることになる。すなわち、為替レートへの切り上げ圧力と金融当局が課する取引費用とのせめぎ合いということになろうか。

 この邦では、前川レポートが1985年10月30日から審議に入り、1986年4月7日に発表された。プラザ合意は1985年9月22日である。ということは、前川レポートは、プラザ合意を前提としての、日本経済の進むべき道を半年で書いたということになろうか。ちなみに、あらためて印象的なのは、この「国際協調のための経済構造調整研究会」のメンバー・リストである。

前川春雄、大来佐武郎、田淵節也、赤沢璋一、大山昊人、長岡實、石原俊、加藤寛、細見卓、磯田一郎、香西泰、宮崎勇、宇佐美忠信、小山五郎、向坊隆、大河原良雄、澤邊守

 職業経済学者は加藤氏しかおらず、農業そしてメディアまで巻き込んだ日本のコーポラティズム体制とも呼べるようなリストである(国際経済学者、国際マクロ学者はゼロ)。最低でも、手元にないボルカー=行天 (1992)を再読しなければならないが、(首相になるために中曽根に忠誠を誓う)竹下=(レーガン子飼いのget-the-job-done弁護士)ベーカーがあり、その上に中曽根=レーガンがいてプラザ合意を決め、その国内調整の巻物としての前川レポートが新時代の御旗として作られた。おそらく、中曽根のメモワールを読めば、この間の経緯がよりわかるのだろう。中曽根は審議会を利用して新しい論客を利用したことで知られる(はずだ)が、このメンバーは極めて不・中曽根的なのも印象的だ。

 李克強・副首相との主席をめぐるライバル関係が伝えられる、「トップ就任3年前の日本訪問」をおこなった習近平・国家副主席は中曽根になるか。このとき、竹下はいるのか。次の主席だけでなく次の首相が大事かもしれません。ほとんどクレムノロジーの世界で、このあたりは費用の高い専門家がいらっしゃるのだろう。もう一つの国際政治の先例は1920年代の米国になる。つらつらと考えると、Mark Twainが言ったと巷間伝えられる"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."という言葉を思い出す。さて、両極の中をどちらにrhymeするのか。年末放談。このあたりのテーマで、昔なら月刊誌で鼎談があったものだが、めっきり月刊誌が弱くなったので、ダメかしら。『世界経済の謎』著者、『大蔵省はなぜ追いつめられたのか』著者、あとはシンクタンク中国政治経済ウォッチャーで鼎談して欲しいものだ。新書で出せばいいのに。題は『韻を踏む政治経済:1920年代米国、1980年代日本、2010年代中国』でどうでしょう。もちろん、ブログ上でもできそうな気がしますが、、、負荷が大きそうだ。

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