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Paul Krugman: Fedは最低2年間はゼロ金利を続けないと。

When should the Fed raise rates? (Some back-of-the-envelope scribblings)。NYT op-edはこれ

 【問題】どうような「封筒の裏」試算を日本経済についてもおこなってみなさい。日本のテーラー・ルールについてのハンディな解説はこれ。09年8月の消費者物価指数変化率(y-to-y)は、食料(酒類を除く)及びエネルギーを除く総合について-0.9%。日銀審議委員たちが望ましいと考えているインフレ率は1%(これ)。オークン法則は失業率1%下げるのにGDP成長率は3%必要(これ)。09年8月の失業率は5.5%。自然利子率のサーベイはこれ。日本経済の実質GDP成長率は3%台だったらかなりimpressiveだろう。

 【関連メモ】09年4~6月期のGDPギャップはマイナス7.4%(朝日新聞)。民主党政権にマクロ経済政策への感度が低いことに関する識者による傍証はこれ

 【関連妄想】現財務大臣が「既にできてしまった期待」を介入をして裏切らない限りは、円高基調は続き、国内相対価格へのインパクトがある。貿易財に対する非貿易財価格が上昇し、まずは貿易財産業企業内の正規社員内の分化(コア正社員 vs. 非コア正社員)が更に進むことが予想される(そうしないと賃金が落ちないので、非貿易財産業と均衡傾向にならない)。参加率の低い労働組合はそれに対してあまり効果的な対抗力とはならないだろう(たぶん雇用の「安定」と引き換えにcooptされる)。望むらくは短期的現象であろうと思うが、多くの産業でアクセルを踏みながらブレーキをかける(例1:製造業下請けにとっては円高は資金繰りを大変にさせ、返済猶予申請へと押し込む、例2:派遣業 規制強化によって人材流動化が進まず、摩擦的失業も高まり、雇用対策が円滑に進まない)ことは別に、基調としては「しごき経済」(=角を矯めて牛を殺しそうな経済運営)が続く。相対価格効果は経常収支については赤字効果だが、同時に総需要が落ちるのは黒字要因なので、キャンセルアウトするかな。

 【一応の関連】いわゆる大企業の新卒採用はこれ。これが中堅にも広がる。

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Economics」カテゴリの記事

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