バローによれば弱恐慌の確率は20％

OPINION
MARCH 4, 2009, 10:05 A.M. ET
ROBERT J. BARRO (WSJ)
What Are the Odds of a Depression?
International evidence suggests there is a 20% chance our stock-market crash will lead to much worse.  (Pointer to Mark Thoma)
元論文はこれ。