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賃金デフレか? (Mankiw)

 マンキュー・ポストのポイントは、3.8%も伸びているから賃金デフレじゃない。労働生産性の上昇率は2%と見込むと、物価の伸びも1.8%だから物価のデフレでもない。面白いのはこの細部。

If we assume the normal 2 percent rate of productivity growth, 3.9 percent wage inflation is consistent with about 1.9 percent price inflation. So, at this point, widespread wage and price deflation seems more of a fear than a reality.

 実は、BLSによれば労働生産性は2.8%の伸びだったのだ(関連ポスト)。つまり、normalな生産性上昇率を仮定しないで、実際の労働生産性上昇率をあてはめると、引き算は3.9%-2.8%=1.1%である。1.9%はほぼ2%だが、1.1%はほぼ1%である。この違いは大きいのではないだろうか。これでも、price deflationは(unrealistic) fearだと言えるだろうか。あとは、expectationが大事だと思うが。
 山勘の類だが、労働をあまり切らない経済では、名目賃金が落ちて、労働生産性はあまりあがらず、デフレに行く。労働を切る経済では、名目賃金が上がっても、労働生産性も上がってデフレに行く。そうだとすると、フィリップス曲線の形状に違いはあるか。

【後記090216】himaginaryさんが、卓抜な対談形式でKrugmanとMankiwの議論をまとめている。とってもわかりやすい。こういうのを真の社会貢献というのだろう。敬服。

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