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ドミノ理論:新興国の伝染が次に感染するのはどこか?(Economist)

Economics focus
Domino theory
Feb 26th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Where could emerging-market contagion spread next?

The overall score in the table only ranks countries’ relative risks. To assess the absolute risk of a crisis you need to estimate external-financing needs (defined as the sum of the current-account balance and the stock of short-term debt) over the next 12 months. Jonathan Anderson, at UBS, has calculated the gap between this and the stock of foreign-exchange reserves for 45 countries. The good news is that only 16 of them have a financing “gap”; in all the others, reserves are more than sufficient to cover a year’s worth of payments, even if there were no new capital inflows. Virtually all of those 16 countries are in central and eastern Europe. They include only two large emerging economies from outside the region: Pakistan, which already has an IMF programme, and South Africa. By contrast, South Korea should not have a financing gap, thanks to its expected move back into current-account surplus. Most emerging economies’ large reserves will help to keep them out of danger. Unfortunately, the longer that the credit crunch continues, the more those reserves will start to dwindle.

 コメント:ギャップ仮説です。この仮説のもとでIMFの現状規模で大丈夫かというのは検討可能。16カ国が中欧・東欧だというのは興味深い。なぜ経常収支が縮小できないのか。どこが引っかかっているのかというのは検討課題。維持可能性が無いのなら、アブソープションを落とすしかないだろう。政治的なインパクトはどうか。国際政治経済論者が考えることだが、G8からG20に拡大していることによって西欧の力は縮小しているか、それとも維持されているか。西欧は中欧・東欧をどこまで守るのか。ロシアはどう動くか。ユーロ圏の「辺境国」、ギリシャやオーストリアは大丈夫なのか。ドミノは欧州に向かって崩れてくるのか。南アフリカ、大丈夫かね。

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