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カバレロ=ハマー『創造的破壊と開発:制度、危機、そして再建』

Ricardo J. Caballero and Mohamad L. Hammour, 2000, "Creative Destruction And Development: Institutions, Crises, And Restructuring". 世銀のABCD用の論文。

At the origin of the above-mentioned misconception is a stark fact. Sharp liquidations constitute the most noted impact of contractions on restructuring. Figure 3 illustrates this point for the case of Chile’s debt crisis in the early eighties. The job destruction rate exceeded 22 percent of manufacturing employment in 1981-82. Sharp employment liquidations during recessions are also documented for other countries.15 What is fallacious is the unwarranted inference that the concentration of liquidations during crises implies that crises accelerate the restructuring process. This view was highly influential among pre-Keynesian “liquidationists” – such as Hayek, Pigou, Robbins, Schumpeter – who saw liquidations in a positive light as the main function of recessions (see De Long 1990). Although few economists today would take such an extreme position, many see in increased factor reallocation a silver lining of recessions. Observed liquidations are seen as a prelude to much-needed restructuring. Under the presumption of technological sclerosis due to poor institutions, increased restructuring can be beneficial. A variety of liquidationist arguments were advanced, for example, during the Asian crisis in connections with the reorganization of Korean chaebols. (p.24)

ということで、彼らは簡単に実証しました。

Surprisingly, recessions seem to reduce the amount of restructuring in the economy. (中略) But, if there is any evidence, it does not support prevailing views that recessions are the occasion for increased restructuring. (pp.25-26)

ということで、カバレロ=ハマー (2000)はliquidationistではありません。理由は金融制約だとのことです。不況時は、貸し出しが引き締まっており、銀行家も資本市場も、新しい技術を持った新興企業家に金を出さないということです。金融制約が無ければ、それは金融危機ではないでしょうね。以後のカバレロがどうなのかは未検討です。

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