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Human Security Gateway

The Human Security Report Project
Human Security Gateway

カナダのイニシアティブだとのこと。Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008は読む価値がある。

The downturn in the opium economy. Since 2007 opium cultivation declined by 19% to 157,000 hectares this year, for several reasons. First, as shown in our August Report, restraint at planting (but not eradication), has been successful. Pressure by governors, shuras and village elders has kept cultivation down in many provinces. Second, and most importantly, the dynamics of farm prices. As (Afghan) supply has once again exceeded (world) demand, prices for opium (both fresh and old) are down 20% in nominal terms (and much more at constant prices). Third, the terms of trade effect. While opium farmers’ income has declined, the revenue from wheat has tripled since 2007 (partly due to drought). The gross income ratio of opium to wheat (per hectare) in 2007 was 10:1. This year it narrowed to 3:1. The net income ratio is down to 2:1. The Afghan government, and its international partners face a unique opportunity to reinforce these economic trends with counter-narcotic measures that can further reduce opium’s appeal.

Blattman and MiguelのCivil Warも発見できた。ありがたい。

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