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FT: China’s currency needs to rise further

China’s currency needs to rise further
By Morris Goldstein and Nicholas Lardy
Published: July 22 2008 20:13 (FT subscription required)
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But on a real trade-weighted basis the appreciation has been only 15 per cent. China’s current account surplus has soared, from 3.6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2004 to 11.3 per cent last year.

The under-valuation of the renminbi has in fact increased in the past three years because the equilibrium value of the currency, the value consistent with economic fundamentals, has risen even faster, as its external surplus has mushroomed and as rapid productivity growth in export industries has enhanced China’s competitiveness. The appreciation in China’s real trade-weighted exchange rate is only about a third to a half of what is needed.

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