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Guns, drugs, and financial innovation (Dani Rodrik)

 Dani Rodrikは、このポストでカルメン・ラインハート&ケン・ロゴフのペーパーへの寸評を加えている。データの見方として一般的に重要なのはこの部分。

In their words, "Periods of high international capital mobility have repeatedly produced international banking crises, not only famously as they did in the 1990s, but historically."(中略)Now what is important about this conclusion is that it runs counter to a growing piece of conventional wisdom in the academic literature, namely that there is no relationship between propensity to financial crisis and openness to foreign capital flows.(中略)I think the difference may be between cross-sectional and historical evidence: the latter shows a close correlation, but this does not mean (perhaps) that the countries that experience the most crises during periods of high capital mobility are necessarily those that are financially the most open.  In any case, I find this a case of reason restored. (太字は私)

 これは示唆に富む発見であると思う。なお、金融を銃と薬と比べたop-edはこれ。面白いがop-ed paperとしては切れ味にやや欠ける。銃は資源だけでなく財を暴力的に奪うところが、金融とは違うのでしょう。

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