« Taylor in Jackson Hole | Main | 不平等と社会流動性(inequality and social mobility) »

Jackson Hole総括

 NYTのJackson Hole conferenceの総括はよくまとまっています。読むためには「NYT070903JacksonHole.txt」をダウンロード 。まとめとしては、いつくかの質問にまとめることができるでしょう。1)Housing boomがバブルであったか?2)バブルであったとして、市場の技術革新によるバブルだったか?それとも、モラル・ハザードによるバブルだったか?3)後知恵としてもFedはブームを抑えるべきだったか?4)現在は、どのように対応すべきか?
 当面の私の不確定な山勘答えですが、1)はまだ研究が必要でしょうが、どうもそこそこバブルだったらしい。2)これはまだ不明。3)はタイラーはあぁ言ってますが、当時のデフレ懸念は大きかったように思います。4)フェルドシュタインは明確に利下げ、ミシュキンもたぶんそう、バーナンキは微妙、マーケットに押されて引き下げはしたくないでしょう。

 おそらくKrugmanに従って、bail outではなくwork outが必要なわけですが、ブッシュのイニシアティブがwork outでbail outでないかどうか。おそらく、work outは行政府、マクロはFedに任せるという作業分担が財務大臣によって指揮されているのではないかと想像します。さて、Diamond風のbank runがnon-bank institutionsに起きたとすると、FTのM. Wolfのlemon problemとは違うことになりますね。この場合は、BuiterのMarket Maker of Last Resortがあてはまることになるかもしれません。Security marketも取引するためにはdepositが必要ですから、implicitにはcommercial paperもdeposit insuranceおよびliquidity functionに支えられていると思います。

 さて、勝手な山勘で米国景気と政策対応をまとめます。residentialは米国経済のそこそこを支えていますが、非常に大きいわけではありません。タイミングは重要ですが、必要とあればFedの利下げで景気は軟着陸できるような気がします。利下げの糊代は十分にあります。さて、ブーム=バブルの後始末ですが、肝心のoriginatorは逃げ切っているので、crisisは政府が行なうwork outで処理し、できるだけbail outにならないようにします。GSEsのブームに果たした役割とoriginatorのsupervisionをよく制度的にチェックして、グラムリッチの言うinnovation部分は残して、今後はmoral hazardが起きないようにするということが重要ですね。innovationとは、これが無かったら家を手に入れられなかった人々がどのくらい住宅金融産業の生産性の向上によって手に入ったかで測ることができるのではないでしょうか。

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