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2007 Jackson Hole Conference Homepage

Kansas City FedのJackson Hole Conferenceのホームページがアップされました。Housing and Monetary Policyのパネルは、スウェーデン中銀のIngves総裁、日銀の岩田副総裁、そしてJohn Taylor教授でした。これはなかなか考えた配置でしたね。インフレーション・ターゲッティングをやっているスウェーデン、不動産バブルがあった日本、そしてタイラー・ルールのテイラー先生。Ingves総裁の講演で面白かったのは以下。

Described in this way, the Riksbank’s strategy is close to the textbook treatment of flexible inflation targeting. However - and here I come to an area where the Riksbank has recently been criticized - we do also allow for taking into consideration developments in asset prices, including house prices. As explained in the policy document “Monetary Policy in Sweden”

“the paths of asset prices and indebtedness can at times be either difficult to rationalize or unsustainable in the long term. This means that there are risks of sharp corrections in the future which in turn affect the real economy and inflation. …In practice, taking risks of this kind into consideration can mean that interest rate changes are made somewhat earlier or later, in relation to what would have been the most suitable according to the forecasts for inflation and the real economy.” (p. 15-16)

Why is such a statement included in the Riksbank’s monetary policy strategy? Why is it for instance not sufficient to simply follow the prescriptions of the textbook account of flexible inflation targeting? This type of criticism was raised in a recent external evaluation authored by Francesco Giavazzi and Frederic Mishkin.

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