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 Morgan StanleyのRobert Alan Feldmanによる総選挙への解説を読む。

If PM Koizumi wins, then the LDP will have a consistent identity, favoring small, top-down government, and a market-oriented economy. If he loses, the LDP’s identity will remain a hodgepodge, with many favoring large, bottom-up government, with a regulation-oriented economy. This is precisely the issue that PM Koizumi raised in the Upper House campaign of summer 2001, when he said, “If I cannot reform the LDP, I will destroy it”.

In this sense, a Koizumi victory would be very positive for reform. The anti-reform elements would be largely purged from the LDP, since it is inconceivable that Koizumi would allow the 51 Dietmen who voted against postal reform in the Lower House to run as LDP candidates. They would likely be replaced by candidates who share PM Koizumi’s philosophy.

 小泉政権の勝利は、43議席の喪失まで確保されると言っている。つまり、43議席まで自民党は負けても公明党が現状議席を確保すれば衆議院の過半数は維持されるので構わないと言っているのだ。そうなると、自民党はfavoring small, top-down government, and a market-oriented economyになるのだと言っている。これは、証券会社エコノミストのone-sided viewであって非常に面白いが、自民党がそれだけ負けると「消費券」を導入した公明党がより強くなるので、必ずしもsmall and top-down governmentになるはずがない。すなわち、現在の自民党の公明党への政策決定プロセスへの優位性は、現在の議席数に対応しているはずなのだが、Feldmanはそれをgivenとしているようだ。


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