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World Bank's Martin Ravallion comments on global poverty data

 世界銀行における貧困研究についての代表的研究者であるマーティン・ラバリオンが、世界全体の貧困データについてサラ・イ・マーティン推計と世銀推計との違いを説明している。簡単に言うと、前者は一人当たりGDPを国民会計から取り、それと家計調査から推計された不平等データを使って、貧困指標(たとえば、人口に占める一日1ドル以下所得人口の割合)を計算する。世銀は、国民会計を使わずに、全てを家計調査から計算する。もう一つの違いは、世銀の貧困線は各国それぞれのもので、家計消費に焦点をおいているが、サラ・イ・マーティンのほうはGDP全体を見ているという。どちらの推計でも1980年代から現在までトレンドとして世界の貧困は減少している。しかし、二つの推計は異なった数値を出しており、2倍ぐらい世銀の数値が大きい。エコノミスト誌は、世銀推計は過大評価なのではないかと指摘するが、ラバリオンによれば、それは推計方法の違いなのだと議論する。サラ・イ・マーティン推計ではGDPを使うので、家計消費よりも大きく、そこから計算される貧困率は「過小評価」されるという。続けて、ラバリオンは、世銀推計の貧困線=1日1ドル所得からの貧困率と、サラ・イ・マーティン推計の貧困線=1日2ドル所得の貧困率がほぼ同じようにレベルもトレンドも動いていることを示している。なるほど。 

Pessimistic on poverty?

Apr 7th 2004
From The Economist print edition

In our issue of March 13th we wrote about global poverty. Martin Ravallion, one of the World Bank's foremost researchers, replies

IN ITS issue of March 13th, The Economist argued that the World Bank has overstated the extent of absolute poverty in the world—that there is less poverty than the Bank claims and that it is falling faster. A methodological debate lies at the heart of this claim. The Bank relies as much as possible on nationally representative household surveys, typically done by governmental statistics offices following international standards. The Bank's latest estimates draw on interviews with about 1.1m randomly sampled households in 100 developing countries, representing 93% of the population of the developing world. ...

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